You probably missed it. Pat Caddell was on Fox Business recently saying the election is shaping up to be a potential landslide like 1980. In an era where half of Americans were born after Ronald Reagan dominated the political scene, many don’t remember.
Incumbent President Jimmy Carter was on top of the world going into the 1980 election. He was on his way to a victory when suddenly everything changed. The polls he had consistently led by portraying Ronald Reagan as inexperience and not able to do the job began to betray Carter after the Iran hostage negotiations broke down and a Reagan knockout punch in a debate one week before the election.
The irony of a failed Iran deal and an “untested” presidential candidate looms large when comparing 1980 with 2016. (Reagan actually served eight years as Governor of California even then by itself one of the largest economies in the world). But the lessons of history give certain pundits willing to consider them an air of expertise–for good reason.
Pat Caddell sees something happening, and he laid it out for Stuart Varney:
This all seems interesting, but do the numbers back it up? We considered the potential for a Trump win yesterday after the FBI revelations had a weekend to marinate. The conclusion–Trump could win, but the path was still narrow. Maybe that’s changing.
Remington Research jumped on the news and ran some polls in key battleground states on Sunday, two days after the Comey letter. And here’s what they found.
Remington Research Group Oct 30, 2016 battleground states
|North Carolina||45%||47%||Trump +2|
These are significant changes for Trump showing key states are actually in play in the first look at voter sentiment after Hillary Clinton found herself back under investigation again. Now, Remington Research uses automated calls in their methodology. Many experts question the results of such polls. But the experts have been calling these races wrong for a long time now. That’s why averaging numerous polls together can help minimize the effect of outliers.
So, what’s going to happen here? Will the trend continue. Is Pat Caddell’s analysis on target or not?
Our take is below. We see a potential 295 electoral vote win for Donald Trump. Here’s why.
- Republican depressed turnout is going to change. These will become banked votes little effected by early voting. Any Republican who voted against Trump cannot get their vote back except in certain states. And most voters won’t be aware how to do it or whether their state allows it. But most questioning Republicans haven’t even tried to vote yet by definition. They will be encouraged to do so now.
- A key GOP contributor just committed $25 million to a Super PAC to run ads highlighting Hillary Clinton’s email scandals and Clinton Foundation allegations. This will help Trump who had less than half the money Clinton after the last campaign finance filing. And he has just kicked in $10 million more in his own campaign.
- States that were hanging in the balance are likely to be locked in for Trump while Clinton’s problems remain the story of the campaign. We predict states that were at risk are much more likely to go Trump’s way: AZ, TX, FL, GA, IA, NV and IN all fall in this category. A new poll in Indiana where Trump was only ahead by four points now has an eleven point buffer in Trump’s favor. Texas (which he was already going to win) is just not a good target for Clinton any longer.
- Trump can actually win Pennsylvania now. The combination of Hillary scandals and massive Obamacare increases provide an opportunity no GOP candidate has had to take the state since 1988.
- Ohio seems to be coalescing in Trump’s favor. He already had good momentum there. The energy is working in Trump’s favor there now.
- Obamacare increases and the Wikileaks revelations were already eating away at Hillary Clinton’s support.
- And more importantly, polls were already tightening in Trump’s favor before the Friday FBI revelation.
With eight days to go, anything can certainly happen, but Trump is presently in the driver’s seat and not yet showing any signs he plans to sabotage himself. But with the two most disliked candidates in American history, Hillary Clinton is presently winning the race to the bottom. And that bottom–if Pat Caddell is correct–may be much lower than anyone previously understood.